Predicting Treatment Demand Using ADAM

Dana Hunt, Abt Associates Inc.
Patrick Johnston, Abt Associates Inc.
William Rhodes, Abt Associates Inc.

ABSTRACT
This paper will examine the ability of ADAM data to predict emerging need for drug treatment in a geographic area. Using data from the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring system in selected communities, we explore whether an emerging need for treatment of heroin addiction can be identified a year or two before it is apparent in treatment admissions or treatment demand. ADAM data from 2000 anf 2001 provide the basis of the analyses, identifying areas where heroin use is rising and/or where new heroin initiates are apparent. We conduct interviews with a sample of treatment providers in those areas and examine data from the Drug and Alcohol Services Information Systm (DASIS) to see if that prior emergent trend translates into treatment demand.

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Updated 05/20/2006