The Number of Times an Average Person is Victimized by Violent Crimes: A Lifetime Perspective

James J. Nolan III, West Virginia University
Yoshio Akiyama, Federal Bureau of Investigation

ABSTRACT
The authors develop an analytical model to estimate the expected frequency of lifetime violent crime victimizations for persons in the United States. The model is built to demonstrate the unique capability of the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) for analysis of violent crimes against juveniles and adults that is not present in the traditional Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. For the purpose of this study, violent crimes include forcible rape, aggravated assault, and simple assault. While murder is a violent crime, it is excluded from the study scope, since "repeated victimizations" of the model does not apply to this crime. The model will be applied to any single violent crime category and for aggregate classes of violent crime categories. In lifetime computations, data for a given year (e.g., 2000 UCR data) is held constant and no forecasting is made. This is because we are interested in what the current year's crime rate means when it is translated into a lifetime frame.

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Updated 05/20/2006