Spatial Diffusion of Residential Burglaries in Tokyo

Takahito Shimada, National Research Inst. of Police Science
Mamoru Suzuki, Natl Res. Inst. of Police Science, Japan
Yutaka Harada, National Research Inst. of Police Science

This study examined the spatial pattern of residential burglaries in Tokyo through Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (EDSA). We used the official crime records of residential burglaries (n=41,551) from 1998 to 2000 and national census data. Burglary rate per 1,000 households was calculated for each census tract (n=2,779) and type of housing (detached, low- and high-rise collective house). In high-rise collective houses, burglary rate for the whole study area tripled during this period, whereas it decreased in detached houses. We then examined the global Moran's for the spatial patterns of burglary rates by housing type using SpaceStat ver1.91. The positive spatial autocorrelation was most significant in low-rise collective houses. Also, yearly-calculated local Moran (LM) revealed that burglaries in high-rise collective houses diffused from CBD to suburban areas as the number of burglaries increased. Other findings will be reported and discussed.

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Updated 05/20/2006