Evaluation of Geographic Profiling Search Strategies

D. Kim Rossmo, Police Foundation

ABSTRACT
Geographic profiling is a police investigative methodology that analyzes crime locations to determine the most probable area of offender residence. This is accomplished through a three-dimensional probability (jeopardy) surface generated by a computer system using the Criminal Geographic Targeting (CGT) algorithm. A jeopardy surface in effect produces an optimal search strategy for locating the offender's residence. Its performance is measured by the hit score percentage, defined as the ratio of the area searched before the offender is located to the total area covered by the crimes. Data from the initial research project at Simon Fraser University, and results from the operational files of the Vancouver Police Department, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, the Ontario Provincial Police, and the United Kingdom National Crime Faculty are analyzed and the findings discussed.

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Updated 05/20/2006