Childhood Predictors of Binge Drinking Trajectories in Adolescence

Ick-Joong Chung, University of Washington
Karl G. Hill, University of Washington
J. David Hawkins, University of Washington
Richard F. Catalano, University of Washington

In a prior study (Hill, Hawkins & Catalano, 2000), four binge drinking trajectories were identified using semi-parametric group-based modeling: non bingers, late onsetters, increasers, and early highs. Adolescent binge drinking was significantly related to both fewer prosocial and more antisocial outcomes at age 21. Further,k these effects depended upon the particular pattern of binge drinking. As a follow-up, this paper examines what risk and protective factors in varilous domains (individual, family, peer, school, and neighborhood) predict membership in these different adolescent binge drinking trajectories. The sample is from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal panel study of 808 youths interviewed annually from 1985 (at approximately age 10 years) to 1991 (age 16), and again in 1993 (age 18). The sample, which was selected to over-represent students from schools serving high-crime and low-income neighborhoods, is gender-balanced, ethnically diverse, with high retention rates (94% of the original sample were interviewed at age 18). The outcome variable for this study is the four adolescent binge drinking trajectories identified through semi-parametric group-based modeling in Hill et al. (2000). Multinomial logistic regressions are used to examine the effect of childhood predictors (age 10-12) on these developmentally different patterns of binge drinking (age 13-18). This study provides an examination of the developmental etiology of binge drinking from early childhood to adolescence with a special emphasis on population heterogeneity. Knowledge of what acounts for distinctive binge drinking trajectories can lead to identification of new modifiable foci for providing children with developmentally-appropriate and effective early preventive intervention.

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Updated 05/20/2006