|The Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) is responsible for all Canadian offenders sentenced to a prison term of 2 years or more. It is presently in the process of developing a number of new forecasting tools and methodologies including simulation models for forecasting 1-5 years ahead, time-series models for 10 year accommodation planning forecasts, and a criminal justice process model for predicting annual federal offender admissions. One new tool is a simulation model which we call OPPSIM-- The Offender Population Profiling and Simulation System. The use of simulation models to forecast offender populations is neither new nor unique to the CSC. However what makes OPPSIM unique is the use it makes of the CSC's new Offender Intake Assessment (OIA) indicators--e.g., Risk, Criminogenic Needs, and Custody Rating Scale (CRS) scores--as factors in the population simulations. Use of these OIA indicators will permit the CSC to project offender intake risk assessment trends into the future, improving the ability to anticipate and plan for changing profiles. changing trends in intake needs assessment should improve the ability to plan future core program demand levels. Finally, the use of CRS scores will permit accommodation planning based on individual offender's ratings rather than the institutional security level placements.
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